8/11-15/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 7/7-11/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


Apologies for the delays and missed weeks. Currently navigating professional workshops, fly out events, and moving into a new college! Regular (and much more in depth) newsletters are returning to the horizon.

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 6,449.8 (0.94%)

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,946.12 (1.72%)

  • Russell 3000 Index:  3,663.7 (1.05%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 21,622.98 (0.76%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Axon (AXON): 754.24 (-10.48%)

    • Paramount (PSKY): 13.72 (30.54%)

    • Intel (INTC): 24.56 (23.11%)

    • United Health (UNH): 304.01 (21.17%)

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,696.77 (1.64%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 25,270.07 (1.30%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 43,378.31 (5.07%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 9,138.9 (0.47%)

  • German Index (DAX): 24,359.30 (0.63%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,381.70 (-1.71%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 62.29 (-0.59%)

Global Macroeconomic News:

Record Rally: Stocks climbed to record highs after softer inflation data boosted bets on Fed rate cuts. Traders now see a September cut as certain, with some even expecting a half-point move following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up 2%, while Apple and Amazon lifted the S&P 500. Tariff worries kept megacaps in check, but investors still expect steady cuts into 2026. Corporate headlines included Nvidia and AMD’s China chip deal, Apple’s AI plans, Amazon’s grocery expansion, and Tesla’s ride-hailing test in New York.


Core CPI: U.S. inflation picked up in July, with core CPI rising 0.3%, the fastest since January, driven by higher costs for services like flights and medical care. Goods prices stayed relatively calm, suggesting tariffs have not yet hit consumers hard. The numbers matched expectations, and markets leaned toward a possible Fed rate cut in September given the softer job market. Still, the rise in services inflation could make the Fed hesitate. Real wages increased 1.2% from a year earlier, giving households some relief.


Chips and Profits: Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of their revenue from selling certain AI chips in China, in exchange for permission to keep doing business there. The deal is unusual and may face legal challenges, since it looks a lot like an export tax, which isn’t allowed under the Constitution. For the chipmakers, it shows how badly they want to stay in the Chinese market after restrictions blocked sales of their most advanced products. China, meanwhile, has been skeptical of these chips, criticizing their performance and pushing its own domestic alternatives like Huawei’s Ascend. If demand bounces back, the U.S. could collect close to $1 billion a quarter from the arrangement, but both the legality and long-term viability of the deal are uncertain.


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Zacks

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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