6/9-13/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 6/9-13/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,976.97 (-0.46%)

    • A slight slide in the SPX was centered around a flat performance for most sectors, however, financials fell the most, losing 2.57%. This was led by Visa, Mastercard, and Wells Fargo. Energy was by far the highest positive with 5.62% gains, led by geo-political turbulence in the middle east, injecting fear of scarcity into the market. APA and Halliburton Co rose the highest around 13% respectively to contribute to this push in XLE.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,197.79 (-1.38%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,396.03 (-0.72%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 19,406.83 (-0.85%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Oracle (ORCL): 215.22 (23.68%)

      • Oracle stock jumped to a record high following renewed investor enthusiasm and bullish analyst upgrades. Optimism was driven by strong momentum in its cloud and infrastructure businesses, with analysts praising its performance outlook. While analysts remain positive on Oracle, some suggest certain AI stocks may offer better near-term opportunities.

    • Halliburton Co (HAL): 23.19 (13.01%)

      • Halliburton shares rose as oil prices spiked following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, a key oil and gas producer. Investors see potential for increased demand in oilfield services if geopolitical tensions drive up exploration and drilling activity. Despite limited growth prospects, Halliburton is viewed as a hedge against global instability and benefits from a strong dividend.

    • Smuckers (SJM): 95.72 (-13.67%)

      • J.M. Smucker is struggling after overpaying for Hostess Brands, leading to major write-downs and disappointing earnings. While it owns many popular brands and generates solid cash flow, its high debt load limits growth potential. The company is now focusing on cutting costs and repaying debt, making it more of a turnaround story than a growth play.

    • United Airlines (UAL): 74.00 (-12.15%)

      • Airline stocks dropped globally as Israel’s strikes on Iran heightened geopolitical tensions and drove up oil prices. Major carriers canceled regional flights, and investors grew concerned about rising fuel costs and weakened travel demand. The situation, compounded by a deadly Air India crash, further weighed on sentiment in the aviation sector.

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,377.0 (-0.35%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,892.56 (-0.35%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 37,834.25 (-0.51%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,850.63 (0.14%)

  • German Index (DAX): 2,516.23 (-3.03%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,452.6 (3.66%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 71.53 (12.45%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

Xi and Trump: The U.S. and China concluded two days of trade talks with a tentative framework to restore trade flows, including rare earth exports and U.S. export controls. The deal still requires approval from Presidents Trump and Xi, leaving its future uncertain. While the tone was positive, core issues like China's trade surplus and technology restrictions remain unresolved. Markets reacted cautiously, with limited movement in equities and currencies. The agreement marks progress, but deep mistrust and looming tariff deadlines continue to threaten long-term stability.

Unrest in the Middle East: Israel launched a major airstrike campaign on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and killing top Iranian military leaders, including IRGC head Hossein Salami. Explosions hit key cities like Tehran and Natanz, prompting Iran to vow severe retaliation and raising fears of a broader Middle East war. Despite U.S. President Trump calling for diplomacy, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the strikes would continue until the threat was neutralized. Oil prices surged and global markets wobbled amid concerns over energy supply and regional instability. International leaders, including in the Gulf and Europe, warned of dangerous escalation and called for urgent de-escalation.


Global Macroeconomic News:

CPI & Core CPI: Core U.S. inflation rose just 0.1% in May,  below forecasts for the fourth straight month,  as companies largely held off passing higher tariff costs to consumers. While grocery and shelter prices rose modestly, goods excluding food and energy were flat, and prices for used cars, apparel, airfares, and hotel stays declined. This moderation in inflation has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates by September, especially as core inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year and real wages are rising. Still, firms exposed to tariffs, like appliance makers and toy companies, are showing early signs of price hikes, raising concerns about future inflation if tariffs persist. 


PPI & Core PPI: U.S. producer price inflation remained subdued in May, reinforcing a broader trend of soft inflation across the economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose just 0.1% month-over-month — below expectations — with both core PPI (excluding food and energy) and services prices increasing at the same modest pace. Goods prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2%, but overall price pressures remained tame due to weak upstream cost growth and only mild increases in wholesaler margins.


Consumer Sentiment: U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in June for the first time in six months, with the University of Michigan’s index jumping 16% to 60.5 amid easing inflation and a temporary pause in the Trump administration’s trade fight with China. The uptick comes after months of declines driven by tariff anxiety, though sentiment remains 20% below December 2024 levels. Americans still see risks ahead, but the truce with China and the postponement of sweeping tariffs appear to have calmed some economic fears. Inflation stayed relatively tame at 2.4% year-over-year in May, and expectations for future inflation fell,  a positive signal for the Federal Reserve. 


Dequity: Private equity firms are increasingly turning to hybrid financing  dubbed "dequity” to return capital to investors amid a tough exit environment, raising $30 billion in such funding since 2023. With deal activity sluggish and valuations uncertain due to high interest rates and policy volatility, PE firms are stuck holding assets longer than expected, creating liquidity pressures. Direct lenders like Ares, KKR, and Neuberger Berman are stepping in with preferred equity or convertible debt solutions that sit below traditional debt but above equity, helping sponsors pay dividends or buy time. These deals appeal to companies with stalled growth but no distress, though the financing is expensive and risks tensions with existing lenders. Despite the cost, the demand for this rescue capital is rising, as over $3.2 trillion in unsold assets weighs on private equity portfolios


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Zacks

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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