7/28/25 - 8/1/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 7/7-11/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 6,248.01 (-2.50%)

    • All sectors of the SPX are down except utilities. Materials (XLB) saw the largest slide, losing 6.12% with infirnding margin compression due to tariffs, and continuing uncertainty regarding monetary and fiscal policy.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 43,588.58 (-3.02%)

  • Russell 3000 Index:  3,542.15 (-2.62%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 20,650.13 (-2.49%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Coinbase (COIN): 314.69 (-19.65%)

      • Coinbase (COIN) plunged 20% to $314.69 as crypto markets slumped, mirroring Bitcoin’s drop to $113,000. Despite the selloff, Coinbase posted strong Q2 earnings of $1.4 billion—a 3,869% surge from last year. Net revenue rose slightly to $1.42 billion, but transaction revenue dipped 2% amid cautious trading. The market pullback overshadowed the company’s robust financials.

    • Moderna (MRNA): 27.60 (-19.17%)

      • Moderna posted a narrower-than-expected Q2 loss of $2.13 per share, driven by cost cuts, but revenue fell 41% year-over-year to $142 million amid weaker Spikevax sales. The company cut its full-year revenue outlook to $1.5–$2.2 billion, citing delayed U.K. deliveries, and now expects lower R&D spending due to a 10% workforce reduction. Despite recent FDA approvals for its RSV and next-gen COVID vaccines, shares dropped 6% on guidance revisions. Moderna continues advancing its pipeline, including late-stage cancer therapies with Merck and a potential resubmission of its COVID-flu combo shot.

    • EBAY (EBAY): 91.74 (12.66%)

      • eBay (EBAY) surged, leading the S&P 500 after beating Q2 sales and profit estimates. The company also issued upbeat guidance for Q3, boosting investor confidence. Gross merchandise volume rose 6% year-over-year, topping forecasts. Strong marketplace activity and improved outlook drove the rally.

    • Meta (META): 750.01 (5.24%)

      • Mark Zuckerberg highlighted a shift to AI, investing $72 billion in infrastructure and talent to develop “personal superintelligence.” The company’s AI focus includes smart glasses and advanced AI models, aiming to lead future tech innovation.

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,559.95 (-0.95%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 24,507.81 (1.07%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 40,799.6 (-1.73%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 9,068.58 (-0.57%)

  • German Index (DAX): 23,425.97 (-4.09%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,416.0 (0.47%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 67.26 (2.92%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

US & UK: The United States and European Union reached a trade deal imposing a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including cars, to avoid a broader trade war. In exchange, the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy products and investing $600 billion in the U.S. economy. Despite the tariff burden falling more heavily on the EU, leaders framed the agreement as a stabilizing force for transatlantic trade. Some European leaders praised the pact, while others criticized it as unbalanced and harmful to integrated industries. The deal excludes steel and aluminum, which will still face 50% tariffs, and leaves room for future disputes over pharmaceuticals and aerospace.


Tariff Day: Trump’s sweeping new tariffs—averaging 15% and targeting trade-surplus nations—are beginning to hit the global economy, raising fears of a demand shock and inflation spike. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as weak jobs data and uncertainty around trade policy rattled markets. Economists warn the tariffs could shave 1.8% off U.S. GDP and add over 1% to core inflation. With more tariffs likely and global reactions mixed, central banks now face a trickier path on rates.



Global Macroeconomic News:

Tragedy on Wall st: A mass shooting at 345 Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan left four people dead, including a police officer and a senior Blackstone executive, after a gunman opened fire inside the office tower. The shooter, 27-year-old Shane Tamura, targeted the NFL over grievances related to brain injuries, but mistakenly attacked Rudin Management’s floor before taking his own life. The tragedy triggered a lockdown across nearby financial firms like Citadel and Jefferies, and left New Yorkers shaken by another high-profile act of violence in the city’s business district. Authorities said Tamura had mental health issues and had driven from Las Vegas, bringing renewed concerns over building security. Blackstone called the event “the worst day in the firm’s history,” and city officials promised heightened police presence in response.


Data Impacts: Markets slipped ahead of Trump’s tariff deadline and key economic data, with the S&P 500 erasing a 1% gain. The White House urged drugmakers to cut prices, while Trump advanced new tariffs and met with bank CEOs on housing reforms. Inflation stayed high, with core PCE up 0.3%, supporting the Fed’s decision to hold rates. Big Tech outperformed—Microsoft neared $4T and Meta jumped—though Amazon’s outlook fell short. Despite trade tensions, strong earnings and consumer spending pushed the S&P 500 to a third straight monthly gain.


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Zacks

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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