6/2-6/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 6/2-6/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 6,000.36 (1.76%)

    • Technology once again leads the charge against other SPDR etf performance this week with a surge of 3.23%, led primarily by MSFT, NVDA, and AAPL. In a close second, Energy grows as Chevron and Exxon Mobil outperform.  On this bullish outlook, consumer staples faces the largest slide at 1.38%.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,762.87 (1.33%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,415.38 (1.91%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 19,529.95 (1.20%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • LuluLemon (LULU):  266.27  (-19.23%)

      • The company reported a 2% decline in Q1 net income to $314 million, though revenues grew 7% year-over-year to $2.37 billion. Its Q2 and full-year revenue forecasts—up 7–8% and 5–7% respectively—fell short of investor expectations. Analysts at JPMorgan and UBS cut their price targets significantly in response. Despite LULU topping the list of Friday’s worst performers, some analysts are shifting focus to AI stocks with stronger short-term upside and lower risk.

    • Tesla (TSLA): (-14.81%)

      • Over the past week, the evolving feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has shaken up investor confidence regarding Tesla moving forward. Moreover, international performance of sales dissapointed the market. 

    • Dollar General (DG): (16.69%)

      • Affluent consumers begin shopping at its stores, offsetting pressure on its lower-income base. In Q1, same-store sales rose 2.4% driven by higher average ticket sizes, especially in higher-margin categories like seasonal and home goods. Revenue climbed 5% to $10.4 billion and EPS surged 8% to $1.78, both beating analyst expectations. The company raised its full-year outlook and is taking steps to mitigate tariff impacts through supply chain shifts and cost-cutting with vendors. Its pOpshelf concept is also exceeding expectations, and Dollar General plans to open nearly 600 new stores in

    • ON (ON): (19.40%)

      • ON Semiconductor rose 31% in the past month, driven by tech sector optimism and U.S.-China trade talks. Its focus on silicon carbide and Fab-Right aligns with AI trends, but a 26% drop in automotive revenue is a concern. Despite long-term gains, ON underperformed the market over the past year. With shares near the $48.56 price target, short-term upside appears limited. Investors should watch for geopolitical risks and sector challenges ahead.


Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,385.36 (0.79%) 

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,792.54 (3.25%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 37,741.61 (0.24%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,837.91 (0.75%)

  • German Index (DAX): 24,304.46 (1.84%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,331.0 (-0.05%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 64.77 (3.75%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

Elon and Trump: Elon Musk’s public alignment with far-right politics and eventual fallout with Donald Trump has severely damaged his reputation, resulting in declining Tesla sales, market share, and shareholder confidence. The split with Trump triggered threats of regulatory retaliation and loss of government support for Musk’s businesses, including SpaceX and Tesla. Tesla’s stock plunged, wiping out $34 billion from Musk’s net worth in a single day, amid investor concerns over his erratic behavior and political distractions. Regulatory agencies could now intensify scrutiny of Musk’s companies, potentially delaying product rollouts and affecting contracts critical to national security. Despite past resilience, Musk faces an unusually precarious situation that jeopardizes his business empire unless he regains focus and political neutrality. 


Global Macroeconomic News:

Unemployment Data: US unemployment rate came in at an unchanged 4.2%. This stagnation after roughly 3 years of increasing in the U-rate brings more support and reason for the Fed to continue lowering interest rates. Especially as inflation slows down and unemployment continues to increase, the dual mandate of the Fed will demand action. 


ECB: The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the eighth time this year, lowering the deposit rate to 2% and signaling the end of its easing cycle. President Christine Lagarde cited compounded global shocks and trade uncertainty as key factors behind the decision, but expressed confidence in the ECB’s current policy stance. New forecasts show inflation dipping below target through 2026, though risks from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Markets reacted by dialing back expectations for further cuts, while the euro strengthened and German yields rose. 

Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Zacks

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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