6/16-20/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 6/16-20/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,967.84 (-0.55%)

    • The Healthcare sector slid by the most 2.59%, led by Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson. The energy sector rose by 1%, led by Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Various 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,206.82 (-0.88%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,393.65 (-0.73%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 19,447.41 (-0.02%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Coinbase (COIN):  308.38 (27.93%)

      • Coinbase shares surged 28% after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill that boosts regulatory clarity around stablecoins. 

    • Jabil Inc (JBL): 206.20 (15.14%)

      • Jabil posted strong Q3 results, with revenue up 15% and EPS beating estimates, extending its streak of earnings surprises. Backed by major clients like Apple and Amazon, plus exposure to AI trends, the company expects continued growth.

    • Enphase Energy (ENPH): 35.85 (-19.79%)

      • Enphase Energy (ENPH) shares fell over 20% this week after the Senate Finance Committee proposed ending solar tax credits by 2028, four years earlier than planned.

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,359.90 (-0.28%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,530.48 (-1.10%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 38,403.23 (0.91%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,774.65 (-0.86%) 

  • German Index (DAX): 23,350.55 (1.27%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,384.40 (-1.84%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 74.04 (2.68%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

FOMC: The Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, citing continued solid economic activity and a strong labor market, despite ongoing swings in net exports. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, though uncertainty around the outlook has eased slightly. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long term. Officials emphasized they will assess incoming data and evolving risks before making further rate adjustments. The balance sheet reduction will continue as planned, and the Fed remains ready to act if economic conditions shift materially.


Global Macroeconomic News:

US Retail Sales: U.S. retail and food services sales fell 0.9% in May to $715.4 billion, a decline from April's revised -0.1% figure. Despite the monthly drop, sales rose 3.3% compared to May 2024, with strong year-over-year growth in non-store retailers (+8.3%) and food services (+5.3%). Retail trade overall slipped 0.9% month-over-month but remained up 3.0% from last year. Over the March to May period, total sales were up 4.5% from the same stretch in 2024, showing resilience despite short-term softness.

Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims fell slightly by 5,000 to 245,000 for the week ending June 14, matching expectations but still reflecting elevated levels—the fifth highest since August 2023. Continuing claims remained near a three-year high at 1.945 million, reinforcing signs that the labor market is gradually losing momentum. The overall trend supports a view that economic uncertainty is beginning to weigh on job stability. Meanwhile, claims filed by federal employees declined marginally to 535, following recent layoffs tied to the Department of Government Efficiency.

No Kings: On June 14, 2025, millions joined "No Kings" protests across more than 2,100 U.S. cities, opposing President Trump as he held a military parade in Washington. Organizers called it the largest single-day protest of his second term. While most rallies were peaceful, some turned violent, including clashes in Los Angeles and a shooting in Salt Lake City. Protesters spoke out against authoritarianism, immigration raids, and the use of military force. Events were intentionally kept out of Washington to focus attention on nationwide resistance. Political upset percolates in market activity regarding party support and subsequently causes movement in equites.

Unrest in the Middle East: Israel and Iran exchanged fire, marking the most serious escalation yet in their long-running hostilities. Israeli strikes on Tehran have killed several top Iranian military leaders and damaged nuclear facilities, while Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles in retaliation. Over 220 people have died in Iran and 24 in Israel since Friday. Amid the violence, Iran signaled a willingness to resume nuclear talks with the U.S., provided Washington stays out of the fight. Markets reacted to signs of de-escalation, with oil prices falling after surging on Friday, though concerns remain over potential disruption to global energy flows and trade routes.

Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Zacks

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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