4/7/25 - 4/11/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


Week 4/7/25 - 4/11/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,363.36 (8.27%)

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 40,212.71 (6.16%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 16,724.46 (11.66%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,037.75 (7.80%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Carmax (KMX): 68.36 (-9.72%)

      • Carmax shares fell after earnings revealed a missed target as well as slowing long term growth targets due to the broadening macroeconomic headwinds. Bill Nash denied a bearish sentiment, but as materials become more expensive, margin compression becomes a looming issue.

    • Newmont (NEM): 54.97 (24.42%)

      • With the spike in volatility and fear in the equity markets drive investors towards value stores like gold. Surging interest in gold helps mining companies that capitalize on the downstream success.

    • Broadcom (AVGO): 181.94 (24.37%)

    • NVIDIA (NVDA): 110.93 (17.62%)

      • With emphasis on driving the chip industry back to America, NVDA saw tremendous growth following Trump pushing for more US dominance, counter to the present where Taiwan has a commanding lead in the industry.

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,251.98 (1.84%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 21,363.88 (3.06%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 34,100.63 (7.48%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 7,964.18 (-1.13%)

  • German Index (DAX): 20,374.10 (8.65%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,257.4 (7.31%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 61.43 (1.81%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

Fed Funds Rate and Equity Risk: As inflation signals to slow, eyes remain on the Fed and their decision regarding interest rates moving forward. As the expectations of interest rates to decrease continue, the spread on fixed income investments against equity investments will widen, making riskier investments relatively more attractive, and could even help stop the equity sell-off that the past few weeks have seen. Moreover, lower interest rates would cheapen borrowing and help R&D heavy companies in investments. 


Trump Strikes Again: This week was filled with various tariff announcements, including 104% on China, an increase to 125% on China, and tariffs across the world. However, Trump announced a 90 day pause on higher tariffs for countries besides China as the equities markets seeded deep backlash on the steep fiscal policy on 56 countries, causing the largest slide since 2008. Following the news of a pause, the SPX soared 9.5%, growth not seen since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Moving forward, investors are curious to gauge the permanence of tariffs and how equity markets will correct for this heightened volatility.

Global Macroeconomic News:

CPI + Core CPI: CPI has decreased from 2.8 YoY to 2.4% as well as core CPI, falling from 3.1% to 2.8%. This fall in inflation gauges signals slowing inflation, despite the PCE ticking up .1% to 2.8% in February. Despite the recent implementation of inflationary tariffs, prices do not reflect the transition of costs onto consumers. This is a key point to look at when assessing the movement of the FOMC moving forward, as with the slowing inflation to the Fed’s target of 2%, the pricing of a rate cut for the June 18th FOMC meeting has increased 10% over the last month to 61.6%. 


PPI + Core PPI: PPI fell to -0.4% from 0.1% change while core PPI fell from 0.4% to 0.1%. This decrease is headlined by the drop in oil prices, as OPEC output increases and tariff war fears cause uncertainty in the US export of oil. Onshore US producers with international imports experience the first wave of inflation, so the decrease in inflation may be the cause of lagging inflationary pressure from the tariffs. However, this negative PPI coupled with slowing inflation reasons is a stronger argument for the FOMC to continue their easing cycle in the short term.


Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment has hit a three year low, with future inflationary expectations at their highest since 1981. The Michigan survey saw a decrease of 7 points, from 57.0 down to 50.8. This shows the continued fear that the broader economy is feeling in the face of Trump’s fiscal policies, given that tariff inflation is usually paid off by the consumers. 

 

Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, GuruFocus

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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