7/7-11/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 7/7-11/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 6,259.75 (0.01%)

    • While most sectors of the SPX were down this week, energy led a positive rally, gaining 2.41% on the week. This swing was led by Exxon and Chevron. New oil reserves were discovered off the coast of Cyprus, championing positive future expectations for the company. 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,371.51 (-0.96%)

  • Russell 3000 Index:  3,559.35 (-0.09%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 20,585.53 (0.46%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Fair Isaac (FICO): 1544.23 (-16.77%)

      • Fair Isaac’s stock was  removed from three Russell 1000 indices, which likely impacted passive flows and investor sentiment. This decline comes despite positive developments, including new partnerships with MI New York and MeridianLink, and an ongoing share buyback program, both of which signal confidence in future growth and a commitment to shareholder value. However, the market’s muted reaction suggests that these positives haven’t outweighed broader concerns.

    • Delta (DAL): 56.65 (11.38%)

      • Delta Air Lines posted strong Q2 results, with net income rising to $2.13 billion and a 25% dividend increase, signaling robust financial health. Its stock jumped 39% this quarter, driven by investor confidence in premium service growth and strategic partnerships like the UPS MRO deal. 

    • Moderna (MRNA): 33.64 (10.33%)

      • Moderna received full FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, for use in children aged six months to 11 years at increased risk, expanding beyond its prior Emergency Use Authorization.

    • Southwest Airlines (LUV): 37.13 (8.95%)

      • The rally was fueled in part by Delta’s upbeat comments on stabilizing travel demand, which boosted sentiment across the airline sector. Despite expectations for flat to slightly lower revenue per available seat mile in Q2, investors appear confident in a broader recovery, with Southwest set to report results on July 24, 2025.

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,510.18 (1.22%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 24,139.57 (1.30%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 39,569.68 (-0.40%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,941.12 (1.34%)

  • German Index (DAX): 24,255.31 (1.72%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,370.30 (1.34%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 67.35 (4.22%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

FOMC: With strength in equities and inflation indicators like CPI and PCE staying steady, the continuation of the Fed easing cycle is expected to continue in mid September. This cut has many prospective impacts on a breadth of financial markets, but not limited to further weakening the USD against foreign currencies, stimulating equity development and investment, as well as increasing the attractiveness of currently issued fixed income securities. Ultimately, the aim with the cut in rates would focus more on the labor market, as increasingly, hiring decreases and competition in the labor market rises. 

Global Macroeconomic News:

Consumer Credit: U.S. consumer credit rose just $5.1 billion in May, far below expectations and down sharply from April’s $16.9 billion gain. Revolving credit, like credit cards, fell 3.2%, its first drop since November, while nonrevolving credit grew modestly at 2.8%. The data signals softer consumer spending, aligning with the sharp 0.9% decline in May retail sales. Markets reacted cautiously, with the S&P 500 down 0.33% and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.418% amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty.


Trump: President Trump has extended the deadline for new 10% import tariffs to August 1, giving trading partners more time to finalize deals before punitive measures take effect. While the European Union, Japan, and others continue negotiations, Trump has warned there will be “no exceptions” for countries aligned with BRICS, intensifying trade tensions. The S&P 500 futures slipped, and global markets reacted with caution as the strong U.S. dollar and rising Treasury demand signaled growing investor unease. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects multiple trade deal announcements within 48 hours, emphasizing Trump's focus on the quality of agreements over quantity.

Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Zacks

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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