3/31/25 - 4/4/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 3/31-4/4

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,148.05 (-6.87%)

    • Sectors plunged after $5 trillion was wiped in just two days, resulting in the SPY's worst performance since 2020, with Technology and Energy leading the decline at -7.70% and -6.60% respectively. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary follow close behind following an onslaught of tariffs and market selloff over concerns of recession and trade war. Consumer Staples and Utilities are up slightly by 1.50% and 1.95% as investors look for stability and defensive positions in an uncertain market. 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 38,923.17 (-5.94%)

    • DJIA has dropped 2,200 points as trade war sparks and China retaliates, bringing the biggest decline since the 2020 pandemic era and its first close in a correction since March 2022. 

  • Russell 3000 Index: 2,901.19 (-7.93%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 15,750.50 (-7.60%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • APA Corporation (APA): 15.51 (-25.45%)

      • Oil prices fall 7% to their lowest levels in four years as trade war tensions escalate. In an unexpected move, OPEC increases oil production, further plunging the energy sector as market sell offs continue.

    • Micron Technology Inc (MU): 65.68 (-23.73%)

      • Following sweeping tariffs MU stock plummeted over suspected increased costs and supply issues in the semiconductor industry. Investors are also concerned over slowing growth and weaker margins compared to competitors.

    • Dell Technologies (DELL): 71.61(-19.78%)

      • Aligning with broader market trends, the tech stock falls following tariff release. Dell indicates it may raise prices to help offset rising international manufacturing costs and supply chain issues. 

    • Boeing (BA): 137.35 (-19.57%)

      • New tariffs rattled markets, hitting Boeing hard due to its global supply chain. Meanwhile, broader economic worries prompting weaker travel demand also weigh on the downturn in airline profitability observed this week.

    • Dollar General Corp (DG): 92.87 (9.18%)

      • Dollar General shares climbed this week despite broader market declines, as investors flocked to defensive retail. Q4 revenue increase of 4.5% and increased foot traffic due to price hikes boosted confidence in the discount chain as the stock rose almost 5% on April 3rd. 


Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,342.01 (-0.89%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 22,849.81 (-3.48%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 33,780.58 (-7.30%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,054.98 (-6.97%)

  • German Index (DAX): 20,641.72 (-7.24%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,036.70 (-3.29%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 61.60 (-10.76%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

“Liberation Day”: President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs of 10% on all exports to the US, adding to the already high rates imposed by earlier March tariff decisions. China gets hit with 34% added to its previous 20%, to total 54% levy on all goods shipped to the US. China retaliates with 34% reciprocal tariffs, upturning US equities and markets as concerns over an ongoing trade war grow. Canada and Mexico offered reprieve from this round. These tariffs sent shockwaves around the equities markets, liberating a year's worth of gains off the SPX.


CME Fedwatch: Fed chair Jerome Powell openly clashes with President Trump after calls for an immediate short-term rate cut follow Trump’s tariff announcement. Jerome Powell reassures that the FED is in no hurry to cut rates, but predictions of a half-percentage point cut in June jumped from 15.9% to 43.8% as the economy faces turmoil. The FED faces a tough choice among rising inflation and strong labor market data, as we await March CPI and PPI that come out next week.


Treasury Yield: Tariff news drives yields to 2025 lows, as the 10 year falls 15 BP to 4.045%, and the two year drops 20 BP to 3.704%. The current yield curve shifts lower and steepens, signaling expectations of Fed rate cuts and easing monetary policy. Rising demand for Treasuries is pushing their prices up, reflecting investor caution amid growing recession concerns.



Global Macroeconomic News:

Jobless Claims: Jobless claims come in at above expected levels as the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. Jobless claims this month rose to 1.9 million, while the initial claims dropped to 219,000. Pointing to a labor market that remains strong, it appears to be becoming increasingly difficult for people trying to re-enter the workforce. This raises concerns for the FED as it may be harder to cut rates than expected.


Seoul Searching: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeok impeached by Korea’s top court following a term marked by scandals and public outcry. After mobilizing units and violating martial law, he was voted out with majority support and protests. Currently unable to address tariff concerns as well as rising tensions with neighboring country North Korea, an election will be held in 60 days to determine a new leader and foreign policy. 


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, GuruFocus

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Macro Movements: Why is Halloween candy so expensive, and why it will be cheaper next year.

Image
By: Aremorph 10/31/24      In 2020 and 2021, the world was shocked by a plethora of circumstances that sent the production of the commodity cocoa into decline. To begin, COVID 19 decimated most trade routes and economic expansion of many nations, especially those in the West African region where over 60% of supply originates from. (Bloomberg) Following, adverse weather conditions from global warming and increased climate change caused excessive rain, leading to root rot, as well as droughts which ravaged crops. (Confectionery news)      This combination of events caused the price of cocoa to spike up from around $2,500 to just shy of $10,000. With roughly a 400% growth, there was global consensus that this growth was unsustainable, and the recovery of the supply chain would lead to the decrease in cocoa prices. Observing the CC1 Comdty graph on Bloomberg Terminal, we can clearly see how the price expectations in the following year shows a significant negati...
Read more

11/4-11/8/24 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Image
Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal We’re finished another action-packed week! Between Election Day, the Fed’s decision on interest rates, and a slew of earnings reports, market volatility was very high. It was one of those weeks where a lot of moving parts  shook up global markets. Take a look below at the index movements as well as some strong performers! Global Movements of the week U.S. Equities with (5 day % change) S&P 500 Index - SPX: 5,995 (+4.75%)  Dow Jones Industrial Average: DJIA: 43,998 (+.59) Big Movers of the Week:  Tesla: $321.22 (+32.28%) Nvidia (NVDA): $147.63 (+8.51%) Palantir (PLTR): $58.39 (+41%) Congratulations to the TMT Group’s Palantir pitch led by Astrid Qing! Costco (COST): $943.80 (+6.52%) Bitcoin (BTC): 76.287.24 (+10.37%) Citigroup (C): 68.63 (+10.07%) Chinese Equities: Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,452.3 (+5.39%) Support and stimulus form the Chinese central bank helped rally investor confidence these past months Hong Kong Equ...
Read more

Breaks Pumping on the Job Market! What Should Opportunistic Workers Do?

Image
      By: Aremorph 11/1/24      In February of 2022, the US added roughly 900,000 jobs to the labor market. in October of 2024, there were just 12,000 jobs created in the US. What is the cause of this stark decline?     To begin, lets look at the hight of job creation in the post pandemic era. After COVID 19, as the economy began to recover, the job market spiked in roaring support of reopening the economy. This led to an surge of created jobs, hence the largest number of jobs added to the US economy in the past 10 years. As a result, the economy began to heat up, forcing the Fed to hike rates to slow down the economy.  Fig 1. Monthly Job Creation in US (CNBC)      As the rates began to cut, the economy slowed down, and the effects were felt in all aspects of the economy, ranging from: consumer and business confidence, GDP growth, inflation, and of course, the job market. As of recent, events such as hurricane Helene and Milton...
Read more