3/24/25 - 3/28/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 3/24-28/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,580.94 (-2.40%)

    • All sectors of the SPX are down on the week except XLP (Consumer Staples). In the face of economic turbulence and uncertainty moving forward, investors are confident in consumer staples, especially in the projected high inflation environment. XLK (Technology) led the slide, losing 3.54% on the week with SMCI and AVGO championing the reigns. With higher interest rates, investment dependent sectors are feeling the impacts in full force.  

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,173.89 (-2.33%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 17,322.99 (-4.01%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Broadcom (AVGO): 168.12 (-11.76%)

      • Tariff pressure continues to push the tech company into a slide as investors' fear of recession increase the possibility of trade wars with heavy implications on technology companies. 

    • Lululemon (LULU): 293.06 (-9.16%)

      • Despite having strong Q4 results, softer retail traffic has lead guidance for the future quarters to fall. Many large investment institutions have altered their price targets lower to reflect this shift in confidence. 

    • NVIDIA (NVDA): 109.67 (-6.82%)

      • Like AVGO, tech heavy companies with international dependence face tariff pricing pressures. Investors remain skeptical about the future performance of large tech companies amid these headwinds.

    • Dollar Tree (DLTR): 72.75 (8.99%)

      • Upon the news release of Brigade and Macellum Capital Management purchasing Dollar Tree for 1 Billion USD, the projected premium draws in investor optimism. 

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,351.31 (-0.40%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,426.60 (-1.36%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 37,120.33 (-1.91%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,658.85 (0.14%)

  • German Index (DAX): 22,461.53 (-2.66%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 3,090.00 (2.27%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 69.04 (1.44%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

Auto Tariff Effects: Ferrari plans to increase U.S. car prices up by 10% to offset the impact of Trump’s 25% auto tariffs. Higher prices of new cars may increase valuation of existing Ferraris. This phenomenon of passing tariffs on consumers is common, and allows us to forecast potential impacts of tariffs on the average consumer. Trump’s main support is expected to feel the effects of many retaliatory tariffs providing incentive for him to lead with caution. 


Global Macroeconomic News:

PCE & Core PCE: PCE rises 0.3% and 2.5% YoY as Core PCE jumps 0.4% to 2.8% YoY. There are persistent inflationary pressures alongside potentially inflationary policy, as well as concerns about stagnation with ongoing trade tensions. With this uptick in inflation, the market is pessimistic about the persistence of the Fed’s easing cycle. It will be important to see how incoming policy impacts the future changes in PCE.


Consumer Sentiment & 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations: The market concerns remain on the future economic prospect of America. Inflation expectations can be a self fulfilling prophecy, citing Bloomberg Surveillance’s Annemarie Hordern, future perceptions of increased prices drives consumers to purchase more goods in the present, locking down lower prices. This surge in demand inevitably leads to an increase in prices, matching the inflation expectations without the introduction of effects from tariffs and other fiscal policies.

Scrooge McDuck: Wall Street bonuses have served to a record 250,000 last year, increasing YoY by 31.5% This positive upshift in financial incentives has moved hand in hand with demand. In 2024, Goldman Sachs received 315,126 internship applications while only accepting 2,700. With an acceptance rate of .8% compared to Harvard’s 3.6%, it is clear that the finance workforce has become increasingly attractive. 


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury, Business Insider

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,

Aremorph

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