3/10/25 - 3/14/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 3/10-14/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,638.94 (-1.16%)

    • Sectors remain down except for Energy and Utilities landing at 2.26% and 2.04% while Consumer Discretionary drags at -4.04%. Energy stocks rise among increased oil prices and defensive investment while the SPX enters a correction. Consumer-related trends can be seen as an impact of rising inflation and concerns over the overall economy along with a looming government shutdown. 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 41,488.19 (-2.40%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,205.29 (-1.39%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 17,754.09 (-0.48%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Teradyne Inc (TER): 86.74 (-20.08%)

      • Teradyne takes a massive fall this week amid reports that tariff and trade restrictions could restrain growth. Updated guidance shows anticipation for short-term volatility in its semiconductor businesses causing delays or increased costs. 

    • Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL): 46.75 (-12.26%)

      • Adjusted financial forecasts show only 3-4% revenue growth compared to previous 7-9% along with a lower EPS outlook. Delta cited this was due to the recent decline in consumer and corporate confidence. 

    • Intel Corp (INT): 24.05 (18.82%)

      • Stock soars amidst announcement of new CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Stepping up on March 18th he will decide what to do with the company’s semiconductor foundry business. Speculation over TSMC forming a joint venture for Intel’s foundry also boosted investor confidence under Tan’s leadership. 

    • Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI): 42.17 (10.28%)

      • Stock rises amidst recent optimism surrounding new cybersecurity partnership with Exein and speculation about a major chip deal involving Intel’s foundry business. Rosenblatt’s Kevin Cassidy re-initiates a Buy rating and stated $60 target price based on solid long-term growth products and position in the AI sector. 

    • Southwest Airlines Co (LUV): 31.73 (10.52%)

      • Stock climbs over announcing that it will begin offering a basic economy option and will begin charging for baggage. Previously being down 16.2% YTD, the company announced a share buyback as well as new strategic growth plans. 


Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,419.56 (1.37%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,959.98 (-0.65%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 37,053.10 (0.22%)

European Equities 

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,632.33 (-0.55%)

  • German Index (DAX): 22,986.82 (-0.76%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 2,993.60 (2.63%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 67.19 (0.87%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

Trump Trade War: President Trump is proposing 200% retaliatory tariffs on alcohol out of Europe if Europe follows through with the American whiskey tax. The EU issued this in response to the previous metal tariffs expected to go forth April 1st. US Big Three automaker companies have also received a one-month exemption from March 4th tariffs, aimed at shifting supply chains to within the U.S. 


Recession Talk: Major concerns over the general economy rise as Trump fails to rule out a recession and calls for a “period of transition.” SPX has officially entered correction after now being off more than 10% off of its February high, while consumer sectors plummet surrounding decreased confidence and uncertainty around an on and off tariff war. The Fed faces a growing dilemma as rising inflation expectations and slowing economic growth fuel concerns of stagflation, potentially limiting the central bank’s ability to cut interest rates.


CME Fedwatch:  With the softer economics data, the sentiment around the next few Fed meetings has changed significantly. The futures for the June 18th 2025 meeting have changed from 1 month ago. Previously citing 50% confidence in no cut, the odds have not dropped to below 23% where the confidence in a 25 bps rate cut has increased from 42% to 60%. This may have a positive impact on equities, given the increased spread on returns, aiding the recovery from the recent slide in share prices.

Global Macroeconomic News:

Jobless Claims: Jobless claims fell by 2,000 this week from 222,000 to 220,000 as the economy continues to avoid mass layoffs into March. Workers from the federal government’s mass layoffs have also yet to fully come through to labor market data, while Trump’s policies could have a negative impact on the labor market.


Inflation Data: CPI rises 0.2%, putting annual inflation rate to 2.8% providing some relief for consumers. Core CPI also rose 0.2% in February. PPI remained unchanged for the month of February, but is up 3.2% for the 12 months ended in February. In response to these reports, the Fed has indicated it remains to keep a cautious approach, pushing potential cuts to June, but labor market turmoil could lead to earlier and faster cuts.


Consumer Sentiment: Recent consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since 2022, followed by University of Michigan survey of consumers showing a high level of uncertainty in policy and economic factors regardless of political party affiliation. On and off tariffs coupled with many losing on their 401(k)s has resulted in reduced discretionary spending and many families cutting back on spending. Small businesses voice concerns over rising prices as pessimism grows for the U.S. economy. 


Russia-Ukraine Talks: Russian President Vladimir Putin rejects proposal for immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, calling for more discussion as a cease fire would only benefit Ukraine. Meanwhile, the White House has engaged in talks with Russia after tightening energy sanctions, while also announcing its decision to resume sending security assistance to Ukraine. Support includes intelligence sharing and the provision of long-range munitions, reinforcing America's continued support for Ukraine.


New Prime Minister: Canada swears in new prime minister Mark Carney, previous governor of the central banks in Canada and the UK. Carney plans to be action-based in his decisions, and plans to travel to the EU to make relationships with countries that are also targets of Trump’s trade war. He also plans to review Canada’s purchase of U.S. made fighter jets amid the ongoing trade war. 


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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