2/17-25/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal

Week 2/17-25/25

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


President's Day and  continued tariff threats from our president the market remained on edge consistently.  Factoring in the earning season as well as changes in the labor market perspective moves regarding the FED are increasingly cloudy. Check out below how Market events and consumer confidence played roles in moving the markets.

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 6,013.13 (-1.67%)

    •  The market remained divided this week with Consumer Staples leading the charge at a 1.95% increase and consumer discretionary decreasing by 3.79%.  These movements in the broader Market illustrate  investors sentiment regarding the future American economic environment potentially slowing down. 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 43,428.02 (-2.89%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,424.46 (-2.13%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 19,524.01 (-2.17%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • Palantir (PLTR): 101.35 (-14.04%)

      • With the Pentagon planning a 8% budget cut and further reductions in government spending Palantir a company that drives a lot of revenue from government contracts felt the impact wiping off roughly 15% of their market cap this comes after a notorious bull run post earnings call citing positive guidance.

    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 466.42 (-12.19%)

      • After the justice department launched a civil fraud investigation into UNH's Medicare billing practices focusing on recording diagnoses that triggered extra government payments UNH stock plummeted at the prospect of decreasing revenue wiping over 30 billion dollars from its Equity value.

    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): 56.07 (32.62%)

      • As earning Seasons continue SMCI's 10K has investors prospecting positive results despite Hindenburg research alleging bad accounting by SMCI in July.

    • Texas Instruments (TXN): 202.00 (11.73%)

      • With continuation of tariff threats spread across the automobile pharmaceutical and semiconductor Industries many producers' stock have tumbled however Texas Instruments who is primarily based in America would have decreased impacts and investor sentiment is quite positive.

    • Celsius Holdings (CELH): 32.63 (41.46%)

      • With the projected horizontal integration M&A action between Celsius and Alani Nu energy investors have clamored over Celsius stock as well as the proposed sale causing an increased stock price by over 40%.

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,375.29 (0.79%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,358.0 (3.09%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 38,776.94 (-0.81%)

European Equities

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,659.37 (-0.84%)

  • German Index (DAX): 22,287.56 (-1.34%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 2,954.5 (-0.06)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 70.35 (-1.36%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

DOGE + Federal Jobs: The Department of Health and Human Services issued widespread layoffs across major agencies, including the FDA, CMS, and CDC, as part of the Trump administration’s push to shrink the federal government. The cuts affected employees involved in medical device safety, ACA exchange oversight, and child care programs, with around 1,000 NIH employees also receiving termination notices. Laid-off workers were informed via abrupt emails citing a lack of fit with agency needs and given four weeks of pay. Moreover, the National Forest service and National Park Service have received job cuts as well. Investors will be eyeing the unemployment and jobless data in the following weeks to potentially grasp the intent of the Fed.


To believe or not to believe: Despite the constant threat of tariffs, equities continue to  rally through these threats as investors remain skeptical that Trump will actually Implement as heavy of a policy as he is proposing. Following the expected tariffs and decrease in labor force inflationary pressures should suppress the odds that extreme tariffs are applied across the board. 

Global Macroeconomic News:

US Excellence depends on excellence: The top 10% of earners in the U.S. now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, making economic growth increasingly dependent on their continued purchasing. Wealthier households have significantly outpaced inflation in their spending, fueled by rising stock and real estate values, while middle- and lower-income groups have cut back. Luxury goods, premium travel, and high-end experiences are thriving, while businesses serving lower-income consumers struggle. If a market downturn or declining asset values shake high earners’ confidence, the broader economy could face significant consequences.

U.S. Consumer inflation expectation: Many signs point ahead to potential increase in prices with tariffs alooming and a projected higher interest rate environment American consumers expect the highest inflation in the 30 years. Key economists cite that higher inflation expectations can often be self-fulfilling. 


Consumer confidence: American consumer confidence Falls from January 71.7 to the end of February at 64.7 this marks a  large decrease reflecting expectations that proposed policy monetary and fiscal will lead to rising prices decreasing consumer confidence.

 

Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post, US Department of the Treasury

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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