1/6-10/25 Weekly Market Recap - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


 

Week 1/6-10/24

Weekly Market Summary by Aremorph


Summary - Movers, Macro, Monetary, and Fiscal


Another down week with the SPX with surprising data points being released. This week, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and US employment report set the tone for labor market strength, and allowed investors to reflect their concerns into the markets.

Global Weekly Movements

U.S. Equities

  • S&P 500 Index: 5,858.12 (-2.28%)

    • The SPX is down for another week, Tech and Communication Services led the bearish slide with a (-4.85%) and (-3.12%) movement respectively. 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,418.36 (-0.91%)

  • Russell 3000 Index: 3,355.19 (-1.84%)

  • NASDAQ Composite: 19,167.74 (-3.93%)

  • Big Movers of the Week 

    • NVIDIA (NVDA): 149.43 (-10.66%)

      • NVIDIA fell on the U.S. government's announcement of new export restrictions on advanced AI chips, which could limit its sales to certain countries, including key markets like China.

    • CVS (CVS): 51.37 (13.20%)

      • CVS Health shares rose 4.8% after a government proposal to increase Medicare Advantage payments by an average of 4.3% in 2026, boosting investor confidence in health insurers.

    • Walgreens (WBA): 12.01 (27.02%)

      • Walgreens stock skyrockets after announcing progress in addressing prescription reimbursement and advancing its plans to close underperforming stores, expected to reduce costs and optimize efficiency.

    • Palantir (PLTR): 66.92 (-10.78%)

      • With over 300% growth in just one year, Palantir experienced some pullback. Inside trading indicated massive sell offs coming up to the peak at 80$, indicating to investors that they should liquidate and capitalize on the growth.

    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): 31.74 (-13.14%)

      • The U.S. is expanding restrictions on the sale of advanced AI chips and semiconductor equipment to China and other adversarial nations to protect national security and maintain a technological edge. Supermicro, a major player in AI server hardware, could face growth challenges.

    • Warner Brothers (WBD): 9.86 (-9.00%)

      • Deal between Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros for a joined sports streaming service, Venu Sports abandoned, leaving bullish investors hanging. 

Chinese Equities - Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP): 3,240.94 (0.69%)

Hong Kong Equities - Hang Seng Index (HSI): 19,219.78 (-0.88%)

Japanese Equities- Nikkei 2225 (NI225): 38.474.30 (-2.8%)

European Equities

  • UK Index (UKX): 8,207.24 (-0.46%)

  • German Index (DAX): 20,295.93 (-0.13%)

Commodities

  • Gold Futures: 2,673.90 (0.95%)

  • Crude Oil Futures: 76.83 (5.51%)

U.S. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:

CME Fedwatch: As the FOMC prepares to meet on January 29th, the market sentiment remains strong that the Fed will choose not to cut interest rates. A staggering 97.3% of investors are predicting that the Fed will maintain rates within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The remaining 2.7% of market participants see a slight possibility of a rate cut of 25 bps. This reflects the market sentiment of American exceptionalism, with perfection priced in, anything less than out harm the economic outlook. Investors expect inflation and labor markets to show strength in the coming weeks.


Trump’s Threats: In a recent press conference, President-elect Donald Trump ramped up his rhetoric on foreign policy, including bold threats against key allies. He suggested using tariffs and military force to assert U.S. control over strategic regions like Greenland, Panama, and even Canada. Trump's remarks implied potential annexation of Canada and the Panama Canal, highlighting his desire for greater U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere. 


EUR/USD: The Euro continues to weaken against the dollar falling to a low of 1.0199. A combination of investors scaling back pressure for the major central bank rate cuts as well as Trump’s policies implications of inflation. Eyes lock onto the ECB’s December meeting minutes to assess the inflation data and prospective monetary policy.

Global Macroeconomic News:

ADP Employment: Private businesses added 122k workers to payroll in December 2024, this was below forecasts which showed a downshift in labor market strength, influencing the investor sentiment and equities markets. Weakening labor markets combat the FOMC decision and sentiment regarding 2 rate cuts in the following year instead of 4 rate cuts. 


Initial Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims came in less than expected at 201k, decreasing form the previous week by 10k, similarly from projections. Fewer jobless claims echoes some residual strength in the labor market, following recent highs in October and December. This 11 month low in jobless claims brings some confidence to investors regarding the economic outlook of 2025.


California Fires: The Los Angeles wildfires have caused an estimated $250-$275 billion in damage and economic loss, surpassing the entire 2020 wildfire season and 2024’s Hurricane Helene. Thousands of homes and businesses have been destroyed in high-value areas like Santa Monica and Malibu, with significant infrastructure damage and widespread displacement. Recovery will take years, as families and businesses face immense financial and emotional challenges. These fires, suggested to have initiated from power lines, echoes the importance of rising climate technology, monitoring the energy grid system.

Potentially Impacted Securities: ALL, TRV, CB, MCY. AIG


Sources: Google Finance, Market Watch, CME Fedwatch, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, New York Times, Bloomberg, Wall St Journal, Washington Post

Have a great week investing!

Sincerely,
Aremorph

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