Macro Movements: Why is Halloween candy so expensive, and why it will be cheaper next year.
By: Aremorph 10/31/24 In 2020 and 2021, the world was shocked by a plethora of circumstances that sent the production of the commodity cocoa into decline. To begin, COVID 19 decimated most trade routes and economic expansion of many nations, especially those in the West African region where over 60% of supply originates from. (Bloomberg) Following, adverse weather conditions from global warming and increased climate change caused excessive rain, leading to root rot, as well as droughts which ravaged crops. (Confectionery news) This combination of events caused the price of cocoa to spike up from around $2,500 to just shy of $10,000. With roughly a 400% growth, there was global consensus that this growth was unsustainable, and the recovery of the supply chain would lead to the decrease in cocoa prices. Observing the CC1 Comdty graph on Bloomberg Terminal, we can clearly see how the price expectations in the following year shows a significant negative trend, suggesting that the